Winchester City Council: Future Local Housing Need and Population Profile Assessment

Cambridge Econometrics, in collaboration with Iceni Projects, was commissioned by Winchester City Council to undertake a Future Local Housing Need and Population Profile Assessment to assist in the council’s new Local Plan to 2036.

The study provided an indication of the district’s future local housing need based on the government’s standard method, and determined the associated population size and structure.

Cambridge Econometrics provided demographic (population), economic (labour force) and housing forecasts for the district and the plan area (the district area excluding the South Downs National Park) using Cambridge Econometric’s Chelmer Population and Housing Model (Chelmer).

The latest ONS 2018 mid-year population estimates for Winchester were used to tailor the migration assumptions in Chelmer in order to estimate what the 2018-based ONS subnational population projections were likely to show before they had been published. The model was also used to develop a dwelling-led scenario based on the local housing need per annum, which was calculated in line with the government’s standard method.