New economic analysis reveals Long Covid could be a long-term drag on economic growth and add pressure to already strained NHS

Funded by direct giving fund Balvi, and in partnership with Professor Emeritus in Public Health Ruairidh Milne from the University of Southampton, the report used available evidence on the cost of Long Covid treatment, economic inactivity among those living with the condition, and prevalence in the UK population to consider the long-term macroeconomic impacts on wider UK society by 2030.

Based on the assumption that there are no long-term healthcare funding commitments to manage Long Covid, the results estimate that Long Covid is likely to reduce GDP by around £1.5bn and 138,000 jobs each year. Were prevalence to increase to 4 million people per year by 2030, the negative impacts would increase to a reduction of around £2.7bn in GDP and 311,000 job losses each year.

Women and low-income households are expected to bear the brunt of the employment impacts both as
groups experiencing higher prevalence of Long Covid and as groups more likely to be working in sectors
affected by the macroeconomic effects.