Supporting the preparation of Territorial Just Transition Plans for Romania and the Czech Republic

This study conducted a regional impact analysis of just transitions in two Central and Eastern European countries: Romania and the Czech Republic.

Cambridge Econometrics provided social, economic, and environmental impact assessments of the transition to a climate-neutral economy for both countries. Using E3ME, Cambridge Econometric’s global macroeconomic model, job impacts were evaluated and then disaggregated to the most vulnerable NUTS regions.

The  Project  was  implemented  by  Frankfurt  School  of  Finance  & Management (as part of the AARC Consortium)  in  cooperation  with  Eurom, MKTB: Make Better and Cambridge  Econometrics.

In response to the increasing policy need to assess the distributional effects of transitioning to a low-carbon economy, Cambridge Econometrics has developed a novel method to model local impacts, by disaggregating E3ME simulation results into regional (NUTS-2) estimates. This article introduces this novel method and shows how it was used to support the understanding of regional impacts of low-carbon transition in Romania and Czechia.

Based on this analysis, a prioritisation of regional investment was proposed to integrate climate change objectives into local development strategies. The countries’ Just Transition Plans could then take these recommendations into account at submission to the Commission.

Key findings

  • To reach their climate targets, countries need to reduce mines by either closing or replacing coal-based power plants and modernise or close carbon-intensive industries.
  • The transition process to climate neutrality is expected to particularly effect communities with carbon-intensive industries, low-productivity, a risk of increasing unemployment, poverty and deepening the already high regional disparities between their regions.

Links to the final reports:

Romania study

Romania is  one  of  those  EU  Member  States  who  receive  Technical  Support  for  five coal  regions: Hunedoara, Gorj, Galati, Mures and Prahova.

Czech Republic study

The  Czech  Republic is  one  of  those  EU  Member  States  who  receive  Technical  Support  for  the  three  coal  regions : Ústí, Karlovy  Vary  and  Moravia  Silesia.

Dóra Fazekas Managing Director (Hungary) [email protected]