The United Nations Partnership for Action on Green Economy (PAGE) and Cambridge Econometrics released a joint modelling project which explored the global outlook for economic recovery in South Africa.

This collaborative project included South African Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (DAFF), University of Pretoria/Universiteit van Pretoria, International Labour Organization and UNEP-WCMC. 

The analysis modelled the impacts of key policies in the Economic Reconstruction and Recovery Plan (ERRP) which were categorised into three groups:

• Conventional Policies
• Public Works
• Green Policies 

Further modelling analysis was also carried out looking at a ‘Green push’ scenario simulating a future where South Africa accelerates decarbonisation of the economy’s power generation system compared to a ‘business as usual’ scenario based on current plans. 

The analysis concluded that without strong green policies, economic recovery would bring a rapid return to the Co2 emission levels seen in South Africa before the COVID-19 crisis. 

 

Outcomes

The findings of this analysis was presented alongside colleagues from UN PAGE to key civil servants in South Africa. 

The report on South Africa was also prepared as a case study within the wider project ‘Inclusive Green Economy response scenario modelling of COVID-19 recovery plans’, undertaken by Cambridge Econometrics for the ILO and UNEP. This wider project focused on a quantified analysis of the impact of alternative (non-green and green) COVID-19 recovery plans on key economic, social and environmental indicators globally and in selected PAGE countries.