Preparing for Brexit
Cambridge Econometrics’ study ‘Preparing for Brexit’ for London Mayor Sadiq Khan gives unique insight into the local economic impacts of the UK’s exit from the European Union.
The report, which is the first comprehensive assessment of Brexit across key indicators and sectors at a sub-national level reveals a spread of impacts under five different scenarios, ranging from a status quo (where the UK remains in the single market and customs union) to an extreme no-deal (WTO rules) outcome.
The study suggests that London will emerge relatively better than the rest of the UK following Brexit, due to its resilience to economic shocks.
However, the results show that Brexit will not only reduce the size of the UK economy (compared to what may have happened if the UK remained in the single market and customs union), but also put it on a slower long-term growth trajectory (the economy is still expected to grow, but at a slower rate than if Brexit did not occur).
To discuss our methodology or to discuss how our approach could be applied outside London please contact Ben Gardiner.