The Chelmer Population and Housing Model

Understanding likely long-term changes in the characteristics of the population is essential for the effective planning of infrastructure and services across the public and private sectors. This is, however, a complex task, as demographic, social and economic factors all influence population trends. Effective planning for the future requires an understanding of how these factors may contribute to change.

The Chelmer Population and Housing Model (Chelmer) is a well-established demographic model that can help support this understanding.

Originally developed by the Population and Housing Research Group at Anglia Ruskin University under the direction of Professor Dave King, the model has built a strong reputation among local authorities, planning bodies and developers for providing robust and transparent evidence to support planning decisions.

What makes Chelmer different?

Chelmer is an invaluable tool for local authorities, planning inspectors and developers who need projections that reflect local circumstances, including planned developments, policy constraints and growth plans.

Chelmer provides detailed demographic and housing projections for local areas of interest. Importantly, it provides:

Independent projections that do not rely on other commercial forecasts

The ability to run alternative 'what if' scenarios

Housing demand estimates informed by demographic and workforce trends, providing a valuable alternative to the government’s standard method for assessing housing need by accounting for factors that affect the labour force

A systematic, rigorous and transparent method so that results are easily traced back to assumptions

Considerable disaggregation (e.g. age bands and gender)

The model framework

Chelmer models the interaction between population and housing in a local area over time. It is based on a cohort survival projection methodology, in which future population change is driven by the starting population profile, natural change (births and deaths) and migration. Importantly, Chelmer can operate using two broad approaches:

Get in touch

Shyamoli Patel

Head of Economic & Social Policy Division

e: sp@camecon.com 

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