Key findings:

The modelling identifies significant potential economic gains from green iron trade, although the scale and distribution of those gains differ between exporting and importing economies. 

1. Green iron exports could create substantial economic and employment gains for producing countries. Under the mid-GIT scenario, Brazil could add US$19.8 billion to annual GDP and 202,000 jobs by 2050 compared with the no-GIT scenario. Australia could add US$11.1 billion and 87,000 jobs, while South Africa could gain US$6.6 billion and 161,000 jobs.
   
   Under more extensive green iron trade, the potential gains increase in several exporting economies. The published findings indicate that Brazil could gain up to US$40 billion in additional GDP and more than 400,000 jobs, while Australia could gain up to US$16 billion and around 110,000 jobs.
   
   

2. Importing green iron could support established steelmaking economies as they move away from coal-based production. The modelling suggests that importing economies can continue to grow while decarbonising ironmaking. Under the mid-GIT scenario with large-scale decarbonisation, Japan gains 592,000 jobs and 0.62% more GDP by 2050 relative to the no-GIT scenario with limited decarbonisation; South Korea gains 336,000 jobs and 1.36% more GDP; and the UK gains 138,000 jobs and 0.06% more GDP.
   
   For Germany, GDP gains from green iron trade peak at US$72 billion in 2035, alongside household income that is 1.27% higher. Japan could gain around US$50 billion in GDP by 2050. The majority of these economic benefits are driven by decarbonisation efforts across all sectors and environmental tax reforms; they continue to hold true with the decoupling of iron and steelmaking.  
   
   

3. The modelling suggests there is an economic as well as a climate case for developing international green iron markets. The wider study estimates that green iron trade with economy-wide decarbonisation could reduce cumulative global emissions by more than 48% between 2025 and 2050 and reduce iron and steel sector carbon emissions by almost 30 gigatonnes, compared to current policy trajectories. The report argues that long-term offtake agreements, investment in renewable energy and hydrogen infrastructure, stable policy frameworks and international partnerships will be important to realising these benefits.

The report sets out practical steps to develop green iron markets, from investment and trade partnerships to green procurement and long-term offtake agreements. It highlights 2030 as a key milestone for securing agreements and 2035 for scaling green iron trade.