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Fuelling Europe's Future
Cambridge Econometrics (CE), in collaboration with Ricardo-AEA, Element Energy and a number of independent experts, has undertaken a research project to assess the economic impact of decarbonising cars and vans. The project was commissioned by the European Climate Foundation and was informed by a core working group of experts in the motor vehicles industry as well as other interested stakeholders. The report "Fuelling Europe's Future", considers the economic impact of a series of forward looking scenarios that encompass alternative visions of Europe's future vehicle fleet.
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For more information, please contact Phil Summerton, Associate Director at Cambridge Econometrics or Pete Harrison of the European Climate Foundation.
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Auto-sector innovation could create millions of jobs by 2030 and help revitalize Europe’s growth
Europe could improve its growth prospects and create 500,000 to 1.1 million net additional jobs in 2030 through auto sector innovation. Increased technology to cut fuel consumption would allow the EU to reduce its dependence on foreign oil and deliver between €58 and €83 billion a year in fuel savings for the EU economy by 2030. This shift will achieve the double bonus of mitigating climate change and creating a much-needed economic stimulus.
These are some of the conclusions of a new report - Fuelling Europe’s Future: How auto innovation leads to EU jobs - released today by a consortium of transport sector stakeholders. The technical analysis was conducted by Ricardo-AEA and the economic modelling by Cambridge Econometrics.
- Jobs are created by increased spending on vehicle technology, but more importantly by a shift in spending away from imported fossil fuels and back towards other areas of the European economy.
- In scenarios in which the Internal Combustion Engine is either optimized or hybridized, the yearly cost of running and replacing the EU car and van fleet is reduced by €36 billion and EU-wide employment increases by 500,000 to 660,000 in 2030. This takes account of jobs lost in the transition, such as in refining.
- In scenarios in which Europe moves rapidly to a fleet of advanced hybrid, battery-electric and fuel-cell vehicles, EU-wide employment increases by 850,000 to 1.1 million in 2030. By 2050, jobs increase by 1.9 million to 2.3 million in all low-carbon scenarios examined.
- The fuel bill for Europe’s car and van fleet is reduced by €58 – 83 billion in 2030 by a shift to low-carbon vehicles, and by €115 – 180 billion in 2050. (excluding taxes and duties)
- While jobs are created and spending on oil imports is reduced in all low-carbon scenarios, CO2 is also cut by between 64 per cent and 97 per cent in 2050. Air quality is significantly improved, with emissions of health-damaging particulates down by 73 – 95 per cent by 2050.
- Demand is reduced for a small fraction of auto sector professions, and some skill shortages also emerge during the transition. The pace of change is likely to allow time for the development of the relevant new skills in Europe, if industry, governments and academic institutions start planning now.
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"This report demonstrates the boost to Europe's economy that can be achieved simply by ensuring today's best-in-class efficient technologies are deployed more widely. Industry, governments and academic institutions must work together to ensure Europe has sufficient highly-skilled workers and engineers to capture this opportunity.”
Jean-Marc Gales, Chief Executive Officer, CLEPA European Association of Automotive Suppliers
“Electrification of transport has clear benefits: it reduces CO2 emissions, saves energy and is the main instrument for overcoming oil dependence. Moreover, when managed intelligently, electric vehicles can contribute to grid stability by balancing increasing shares of variable and decentralised renewables. This report shows the advantages of electricity as the optimal alternative fuel solution.”
Hans ten Berge, Secretary-General, Eurelectric
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"EUROBAT welcomes the findings of the study, which are valuable in recognizing the economic benefits of automotive sector innovation to European society; both through further short-term improvements to the internal combustion engine’s performance via on-board battery systems and other technologies, and moving ahead towards 2050 with the transition towards vehicle hybridisation and electrification. With batteries of all technologies already improving fuel efficiency across the different levels of e-mobility, EUROBAT urges policymakers to act strongly to ensure the study’s projected economic benefits remain in Europe for battery manufacturers and other companies along the automotive supply chain."
Alfons Westgeest, Executive Director, EUROBAT
“We welcome that the report acknowledges the potential of lightweighting materials to improve the energy efficiency of any vehicles. Europe’s ambition to be leader in efficient vehicles must be reflected in a technology neutral legislation that will boost innovation and foster the European industry‘s competitiveness”
Gerd Götz, Director General EAA.
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"From the workers' perspective, it is important that this study shows how low carbon technologies for motor vehicles offer the opportunity for new and additional jobs within the sector. Therefore, the current crisis should not become the pretext to slow down the transition – but should be used as the occasion for training workers and preparing the change."
Wolf Jacklein, Policy Adviser
“The final results of the study demonstrate the many benefits zero emission mobility could bring to the community at large, and how it goes well beyond sustainable mobility. The accelerated market penetration of electric vehicles in Europe would result in a significant steps being made towards a better urban air quality, creation of new jobs and a stronger European economy. This would create jobs across Europe, not just in car manufacturing, but also in suppliers of electric vehicle infrastructure and support services.”
Olivier Paturet, General Manager Electric Vehicle Strategy, Nissan Europe.
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“Transport is a major source of greenhouse gases, and decarbonisation of transport is a key area of interest for SSE as well as the forward-thinking companies we work with. We believe that electric vehicles will play an increasing role in fleets and mobility, not only reducing costs of transport as fossil fuel-based vehicles become uneconomic, but also improving air quality and bringing broader benefits to the energy system"
David Densley, Head of Sustainable Transport for SSE
“We cannot halt the risk of dangerous climate change without tackling the emissions from cars, which account for 14 per cent of all CO2 in the bloc. This report demonstrates that a transition to e-mobility will be cost-effective, benefit the EU economy and generate jobs.”
Greg Archer, Clean Vehicles Manager, Transport & Environment
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"This study shows that the way forward for European car industry is shifting to zero emission technology, for the economic development and for the climate. The work for that shifts starts today."
Marius Holm, Managing Director, climate foundation ZERO