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The Economic Impact of Decarbonising Household Heating in the UK

Emissions from residential buildings, primarily from the use of fossil fuel for heating, are a major source of the UK’s CO2 emissions. As a result, and as part of its 10 Point Plan to build back better and support the UK’s transition to Net Zero, the UK Government have set an ambition to deploy electric heating in residential buildings, by delivering 600,000 heat pumps installations per year by 2028.
However, the Climate Change Committee's 2021 Progress Report to Parliament states that this target is insufficient and should be upscaled to 900,000 installations per year by 2028, if the path to Net Zero is to be successful. 

Greenpeace commissioned Cambridge Econometrics to explore the potential macroeconomic impacts of deploying energy efficiency measures and low-carbon heating technologies in the UK's residential buildings.

The analysis highlights the potential return on action to increase take-up of such technologies and inform the debate on policies needed to put the UK's household heating stock in the right trajectory for Net Zero. 

REPORT Impacts of decarbonising household heating UK
The economic impact of decarbonising household heating in the UK

Authors: Jen Dicks and Ornella Dellaccio 

 

The macroeconomic impacts of three housing decarbonisation scenarios were assessed using macroeconomic modelling and drawing on recommendations from the Climate Change Committee. 

Central scenario: Drawing on recommendations by the Climate Change Committee, the central scenario aims to install just over one million heat pumps per year by 2030 and upgrade all buildings to EPC standards within the next 10-15 years.

10-Point Plan deployment scenario: Additional variation to the central scenario, adjusting the deployment of heat pumps to be in line with the UK Government target.

Low technology cost scenario: Additional variation to the central scenario, where there is a rapid reduction in the average cost of installed heat pumps from the current assumption of £11,855 to £5,500 in 2022, and continues to fall afterwards. 

Key Findings

1
The analysis found that all three scenarios would provide a significant boost to the economy, both in terms of job creation and GDP. However, the greatest benefits would come from the more ambitious rollout of low-carbon heating technologies and energy efficiency.
2

A properly funded, ambitious programme to insulate homes and swap gas boilers for low-carbon heating sources, such as heat pumps, could deliver substantial economic and social benefits.

Up to 138,600 new jobs could be created and the economy boosted by £9.8bn by 2030 if the government was to deliver a strategy for decarbonising homes that significantly increased the deployment of heat pumps and energy efficiency measures, with grants to cover the costs.

Get in Touch

BC-1

Jen Dicks

Executive Vice President (US)

t: +44 1223 533139

e:jd@camecon.com