Housing and Population Demand Forecast and Scenarios, 2035 and 2050

30 April 2025

Housing and Population Demand Forecast and Scenarios, 2035 and 2050

To promote reinvestment and redevelopment in northwest Vermont downtowns and village centers, the Chittenden County Regional Planning Commission (CCRPC) is developing a comprehensive plan for transit-oriented development (TOD) for 10 communities across a five-county region in Northwest Vermont. Vermont experienced an uptick in migration post pandemic (a location that people could move to and remote work) which has led to a lot of concern about housing, housing prices, and the various needs to increase housing production.

As a first step to inform their TOD plan, CCRPC commissioned White + Burke Real Estate Advisors and Cambridge Econometrics to analyze the current economic and housing markets in these counties and communities. A major contribution by CE was completing a detailed 25-year outlook of housing demand, reflecting population trends and both pre- and post-pandemic net migration to Vermont.

The purpose of the study was to provide CCRPC with a clear understanding of the existing and future potential housing demand, within the context of the level of development that may be possible in each of the 10 communities and quantify how much the regio’s population would need to grow by in order to reach future housing targets identified at the state level. Cambridge Econometrics developed detailed economic profiles of the five counties and ten communities across a wide range of demographic, industry, housing and socioeconomic characteristics. CE also customized and applied its Housing and Population model to forecast housing demand based on a baseline growth scenario as well as two alternative scenarios aligned with official state housing projections.

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Housing and Population Demand Forecast and Scenarios, 2035 and 2050

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Our Approach

Cambridge Econometrics developed detailed economic profiles of each of the five counties, examining both their local economy and demographic conditions as well as important characteristics of their housing market in terms of stock, size, values, vacancy, and share of seasonal homes.

We then used CE’s Housing and Population model to forecast housing demand in each of the five counties and 10 communities in 2035 and 2050. As shown in the graphic below, CE’s in house Housing and Population model uses key inputs that effect population change (population by age, migration, birth and date rates) to develop forecasts in terms of total future population and housing demand associated with those future population levels.

These population-based forecasts took the existing housing deficit into account. Specifically, this was done by incorporating the housing growth needed to replace the aging stock of old homes and to achieve healthier vacancy rates in markets that are currently very constrained. We developed a baseline forecast that estimated housing demand in 2035 and 2050, building from recent population and migration trends in the five counties. We then developed two additional higher growth scenarios that revealed the population growth required to achieve housing targets set at the State level.

Key Findings

The baseline forecast (based on current trends) shows stagnant or declining regional population in the forecast period. The household population in Chittenden and Franklin counties is projected to increase until around 2042 and then start a slight downward trend. Meanwhile, the total household population in Addison County, Washington County, and Rutland County declines in the baseline forecast over the entire period of 2022 to 2050.

The population decline is driven by the aging population. Natural change is negative (i.e., there are more deaths than births) in Addison, Rutland, and Washington counties between 2022 and 2035 and all counties between 2036 and 2050.

An aging population can increase demand for housing since older people tend to live alone and therefore make up more single-person households. In the baseline scenario, there will be more households in 2035 than in 2022 in all counties except Rutland. By 2050, the population decline offsets this dynamic and results in fewer households in Addison and Washington counties, but Chittenden and Franklin counties continue to see growth.

The baseline forecast suggests that more homes will be required in most counties by 2035 to accommodate population and address the deficit. By 2050, Addison and Washington counties will require slightly fewer homes compared to 2035, with Rutland’s trend leading to fewer homes by 2035. Chittenden and Franklin counties will require continued growth in homes through to 2050, though this growth slows over time. Nevertheless, when replacement homes are considered, all counties will require additional homes by 2050, except for Rutland.

A substantial increase in net migration would be needed to support continuous growth in households. Between 2022 and 2035, the five counties would need a net migration of 76,000 under the high scenario, a substantial increase from the 11,000 forecasted in the baseline. An even larger increase in net migration (123,000) is needed to accommodate the household growth between 2036 and 2050, unlike the baseline scenario that projects declining population by 2050.

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Dan Hodge

Executive Vice President (US)

t: + 1 413 206 4001

e:dh@camecon.com

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