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Pioneering study equips climate research community

A new interdisciplinary study commissioned by the Met Office and funded by the UK Climate Resilience Programme has provided a series of innovative products to aid future research into the UK's climate resilience through the development of UK-SSPs (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways). 

Consistent with the global SSPs which are used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to explore a set of plausible socio-economic future outlooks up to 2100,  the creation of the UK SSPs fills a national research gap to help support future decision-making surrounding climate change, mitigation and adaptation.

Cambridge Econometrics led a partnership with UK Centre of Ecology & Hydrology, University of Edinburgh, and University of Exeter to develop the UK-SSPs, producing five scenario pathways and products that can be used by the climate resilience research community:

  1. Scenario fact sheets containing a detailed narrative of each UK-SSP 
  2. Systems diagram videos showing the interrelationships between the socio-economic drivers in each scenario 
  3. Semi-quantitative trends for 50 socioeconomic variables 
  4. Quantified spatial projections for 25 key socioeconomic variables 
  5. Interface for exploring and accessing each UK-SSP 

The completion of the UK-SSPs follows the Climate Change Committee’s recently published 3rd Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA3) which was launched last week. The UK-SSPs are likely to be key underpinning datasets for the 4th CCRA, enabling UK government to take account of socio-economic change, as well as climate change in the assessment of future risks. 

This analysis fills a key gap in existing climate resilience research by providing a set of socio-economic scenarios, consistent with existing global modelling, upon which future research can be based. Having a common underpinning for future risk evaluations will strengthen the robustness of future analysis and ensure that policy can be developed building on a common base. 
Jon Stenning

Principal Investigator and Head of Environment at Cambridge Econometrics

The UK-SSPs were co-created with a wide range of UK stakeholders covering the four UK nations and a range of sectors (e.g. agriculture, water, biodiversity, infrastructure). The intensive participatory approach ensures that local/regional knowledge and insights are embedded within the UK-SSPs so that they deliver results which will be useful to, and meet the specific needs of, UK research and policy. 
Professor Paula Harrison

UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology

Comprehensive assessments of climate change risk require not only information about how the climate could change, but also how society could evolve during this century. The UK-SSP project and products provide this critical information in multiple formats – narratives, semi-quantitative trends and quantified spatial projections – which can now be integrated into climate impact, risk and adaptation assessments by researchers and practitioners. The use of UK-SSPs in research and planning will enhance the robustness of climate adaptation decision-making to uncertainty. 

Professor of Climate Change Adaptation, Suraje Dessai

University of Leeds and co-champion of the UK Climate Resilience Programme

Access the UK-SSPs here

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