To promote reinvestment and redevelopment in northwest Vermont downtowns and village centers,  the Chittenden County Regional Planning Commission (CCRPC) is developing a comprehensive  plan for transit-oriented development (TOD) for 10 communities across a five-county region in  Northwest Vermont. Vermont experienced an uptick in migration post pandemic (a location that  people could move to and remote work) which has led to a lot of concern about housing, housing  prices, and the various needs to increase housing production.

As a first step to inform their TOD plan, CCRPC commissioned White + Burke Real Estate Advisors  and Cambridge Econometrics to analyze the current economic and housing markets in these counties and communities. A major contribution by CE was completing a detailed 25-year outlook of  housing demand, reflecting population trends and both pre- and post-pandemic net migration to  Vermont.

The purpose of the study was to provide CCRPC with a clear understanding of the existing and  future potential housing demand, within the context of the level of development that may be possible  in each of the 10 communities and quantify how much the regio’s population would need to grow by in order to reach future housing targets identified at the state level.  Cambridge Econometrics developed detailed economic profiles of the five counties and ten  communities across a wide range of demographic, industry, housing and socioeconomic  characteristics. CE also customized and applied its Housing and Population model to forecast  housing demand based on a baseline growth scenario as well as two alternative scenarios aligned  with official state housing projections.

Our Approach

Cambridge Econometrics developed detailed economic profiles of each of the five counties,  examining both their local economy and demographic conditions as well as important characteristics  of their housing market in terms of stock, size, values, vacancy, and share of seasonal homes.

We then used CE’s Housing and Population model to forecast housing demand in each of the five  counties and 10 communities in 2035 and 2050. As shown in the graphic below, CE’s in house  Housing and Population model uses key inputs that effect population change (population by age,  migration, birth and date rates) to develop forecasts in terms of total future population and housing  demand associated with those future population levels. 

These population-based forecasts took the existing housing deficit into account. Specifically, this was done by incorporating the housing growth needed to replace the aging stock of old homes and to achieve healthier vacancy rates in markets that are currently very constrained. We developed a baseline forecast that estimated housing demand in 2035 and 2050, building from recent population and migration trends in the five counties. We then developed two additional higher growth scenarios that revealed the population growth required to achieve housing targets set at the State level.