All posts by: Hector Pollitt

Coronavirus: how to model the economic impacts of a pandemic

Not long after the coronavirus COVID-19 grabbed news headlines, requests started coming to Cambridge Econometrics to model the economic impacts – so we quickly began looking into the possibilities.  We subsequently published our initial modelling results.

The OECD had pub…

Brexit: the economists were broadly right

brexit economists

Most of the predictions so far of moderate losses to GDP proved to be broadly correct – GDP really is around 1-3% lower than it otherwise would have been.
But economists must be more up-front about the limitations of their modelling and more careful in the way they allow their…

Green Growth versus Degrowth: lessons from our modelling

amazon fires green growth degrowth

Is it really possible to keep on consuming more and more, while still respecting societal and environmental boundaries?
Will the future be one of green growth (the economy grows while resource use falls) or degrowth (economic growth is constrained in order to reduce environment…

Trade modelling, supply and demand… and Brexit

trade supply demand brexit

In a previous blog post I wrote about how the positive impacts of trade may be exaggerated by standard models – and how the economic impacts of trade may not always be positive.
I noted that simulations with Cambridge Econometrics’ post-Keynesian E3ME model would not necessa…

The social cost of carbon; it’s time to kill it

Social cost of carbon emissions CO2

The social cost of carbon (SCC) is misguided, increasingly irrelevant and should have been abandoned years ago, so argues our Director and Head of Modelling, Hector Pollitt.

What is the social cost of carbon (SCC)?
The social cost of carbon (SCC) is a hideous construct of mai…

What if China said ‘no’ to new coal?

chinese coal climate change

Head of Modelling, Hector Pollitt, sends us a report from the United Nations climate change talks (COP24) in Katowice, Poland.
The mood going into COP24 has not been overly positive. Yes, there are record numbers of renewables installations, but global emissions are still increa…