Exploring the Trade-Offs in Different Paths to Reduce Transport and Heating Emissions in Europe
European Member States agreed in December 2020 to an increased climate
target for 2030 of -55% net emissions reductions.
In July, the European Commission will propose an update of the EU’s key climate and energy legislation to turn that climate target into concrete policy.
This report looks into the impact of an increase in ambition in the road transport and buildings sector on the European economy and on household purchasing power.
Our analysis shows that, if well designed, more rapid decarbonisation in these two sectors leads to positive macroeconomic impacts in Europe.

Exploring the trade-offs in different paths to reduce transport and heating emissions in Europe
Authors: Dóra Fazekas, Jon Stenning, Unnada Chewpreecha, Boglárka Molnar, An Vu and Áron Dénes Hartvig.
Key Findings
The analysis explored the macroeconomic implications, including distributional impacts, and presented results at the EU27 level, and in three chosen Member States: Germany, Poland and France.
There are potential macroeconomic benefits to Europe from more rapid decarbonisation of these sectors, although the precise nature of the benefits depends upon how the goal is realised.
Keeping road transport and buildings as part of national climate targets could deliver the most substantial economic impacts, while encouraging the take-up of low-carbon technologies.
By contrast, there are risks of negative distributional impacts from the introduction of an ETS that would require explicit policy to mitigate them.
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