New economic analysis reveals Long Covid could be a long-term drag on economic growth and add pressure to already strained NHS
A new report by global economics consultancy Cambridge Econometrics
reveals that Long Covid could have wider economic ramifications for the UK causing a drag on economic growth and added pressure on the NHS if no long-term healthcare funding commitments are made.
Funded by direct giving fund Balvi, and in partnership with Professor Emeritus in Public Health Ruairidh Milne from the University of Southampton, the report used available evidence on the cost of Long Covid treatment, economic inactivity among those living with the condition, and prevalence in the UK population to consider the long-term macroeconomic impacts on wider UK society by 2030.
Based on the assumption that there are no long-term healthcare funding commitments to manage Long Covid, the results estimate that Long Covid is likely to reduce GDP by around £1.5bn and 138,000 jobs each year. Were prevalence to increase to 4 million people per year by 2030, the negative impacts would increase to a reduction of around £2.7bn in GDP and 311,000 job losses each year.
Chris Thoung, Director of Society at Cambridge Econometrics comments,
Using our in-house macroeconomic model E3ME, our analysis suggests Long Covid may represent a further source of chronic pressure on an already strained NHS and a drag on economic growth. There are long-term costs to the UK economy and the NHS. No firm policy position on Long Covid is as much a decision as policy action.
Women and low-income households are expected to bear the brunt of the employment impacts both as
groups experiencing higher prevalence of Long Covid and as groups more likely to be working in sectors
affected by the macroeconomic effects.
Professor Milne comments,
Long Covid is a major public health challenge and I welcome one of the first macroeconomic impact assessments on Long Covid in the UK. This report clearly demonstrates why policy makers must take Long Covid seriously in terms of prevention, research and healthcare. Doing so will help not only those living with the condition and their families, but it will also reduce the economic burden of groups that are already experiencing the pressures of a cost-of-living crisis and an NHS under huge strain with extensive waiting lists.