New Impact Assessment report accompanies EU Commission recommendations for a 90% emissions reduction target by 2040

A detailed Impact Assessment published this week has accompanied the latest EU Commission Communication to the European Parliament, which recommends a 90% emissions reduction target by 2040 alongside a number of enabling policy conditions which are necessary to achieve the target. 

Enabling policy conditions recommended by the Commission include the full implementation of the agreed 2030 framework, a greater focus on a just transition and a level playing field with international partners. 

As required under The European Climate Law enforced in July 2021, a legislative proposal will be made by the next Commission after the European elections, which is within six months of the first Global Stocktake of the Paris Agreement that took place December 2023.

Cambridge Econometrics’ E3ME model supported the robustness of economic assessment

To ensure the quality and robustness of the analysis, the Impact Assessment relied on a range of advanced and peer-reviewed modelling tools which have been regularly used by the European Commission to assess the impact of climate and energy policies over the years, including Cambridge Econometrics’ E3ME. 

Cambridge Econometrics’ E3ME complemented the assessment of the socio-economic impact of the target options alongside JRC’s core model GEM-E3 and DG ECFIN’s E-QUEST. 

Principal Economic Modeller Ha Bui comments,

Having worked with the EU Commission’s modelling community for years, we were delighted to contribute to the analysis, ensuring the assessment of the socio-economic impact of target options were robust and of the highest standards.

Stijn Van Hummelen, Managing Director (Belgium) comments,

Cambridge Econometrics have continued to work closely with policymakers to ensure the latest macroeconomic insights and advanced modelling tools are used to support European Climate Law in achieving climate neutrality by 2050. This Impact Assessment informs a critical part in defining the EU’s strategy towards climate neutrality, by assessing the net economic impact of the Commission’s proposed 2040 emission reduction targets. It is now for the other EU institutions and Member States to carefully consider the Commission’s recommendation and come to a decision.