Fuelling Italy’s Future

“Fuelling Italy’s Future: How the transition to low-carbon mobility strengthens the economy” shows that the transition to low and zero carbon vehicles in Italy will lead to a larger economy.

According to the report, the transition has a net positive impact on employment, as 19,225 net additional jobs will have been created in Italy in 2030 and more than 50,000 net additional jobs in 2050.

The report was compiled by Cambridge Econometrics, Element Energy and CERTeT Bocconi for the European Climate Foundation, Enel Foundation and Transport & Environment.

Download the summary report in English

Download the summary report in Italian

Download the full technical report

It set out to evaluate the likely economic impacts and the transitional challenges associated with de-carbonising the Italian car fleet in the medium term (to 2030) and the long term (to 2050), as well as the likely impact on citizens’ health and the health system.

The study also shows that improving the efficiency of cars and the greater use of zero emissions vehicles (fuelled via electricity and hydrogen) provides other potential benefits including:

  • Increasingly, mobility is powered by domestically produced electricity and hydrogen, rather than imported oil. This creates €3.0bn per year of value for Italian energy producers.
  • The final cost of mobility for Italian drivers will decrease due to the transition. For each driver, spending on fuels is reduced by €339 per year in the TECH scenario between 2020 and 2030. This means a saving of up to €3,727 over the lifetime of the car. €5.6 bn is saved across the economy and is spent on other goods and services.
  • By cutting oil imports, Italy could save about 21 billion euros between now and 2030 and 377 billion euros by 2050, with a consequent boost to the Italian trade balance.
  • The issue of low air quality linked to passenger mobility will be also addressed, avoiding 1,100 premature deaths by 2030 and preventing a significant number of lung cancers, chronic bronchitis and asthma.

Challenges include:

  • After 2030, the transition to electric mobility will increase employment in sectors such as electrical equipment, as well as services, but is likely to have an adverse impact on employment in the automotive value chain. Well targeted policy interventions delivering assistance to those workers that lose their jobs in the transition are needed.
  • Sufficient publicly accessible charging infrastructure is a key enabler for the accelerated uptake of low-carbon mobility, as mentioned also in the National Plan for Recharging Infrastructure. It is estimated that 3 billion euros will be required for investments in charging infrastructure for electric vehicles in the period to 2030. Of this, €1.8 billion will serve to provide publicly available charging infrastructure for electric vehicles.
  • The transition poses a significant challenge to maintain the competitiveness and market share of the Spanish auto industry, by remaining at the cutting edge of clean technology innovation.
Jon Stenning Associate Director js@camecon.com