Research Papers making use of Cambridge Econometrics European Regional Databases
Sub heading
Cambridge Econometrics provides its database for pure (un-funded) academic
research on a transfer cost basis. To promote wider dissemination of
their work, we make available the resulting academic papers where permission
has been granted by the author. What follows is an abstract from the
paper and a downloadable file in Microsoft Word and/or pdf format.
| Paper: | 'The impact of the Institutions on Regional Unemployment disparities |
| Author: | Floro Ernesto Caroleo, Gianluigi Coppola |
| Date: | August 2005 |
ABSTRACT:
The main aim of this paper is to study the European regional disparities
in the labour market, considering the regional productive structures
and some regional institutional variables. It is widely known that one
of the EU’s most important stylized facts are the regional disparities
among regions. Such differences are related mostly to the income per
capita and to the labour market captured through the unemployment rates.
In a recent paper (Amendola, Caroleo Coppola, 2004) we analyzed the economic
structure of the EU’s regions through some proxies of the productive
assets and of the labour markets. In this paper we estimate a Panel data
where the dependent variable is the regional unemployment rate and the
independent variables are some variables related to the productive structure
and some regional institutional aspects. The results we obtain confirm
that the institutional variables, such as the centralization of wage
bargaining, the decentralization of public expenditure and the bureaucracy
level, play an important impacts on the unemployment rates.
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| Paper: | Regional Inequality in the European Union: Does Industry Mix Matter? |
| Author: | Roberto Ezcurra, Carlos Gil, Pedro Pascual and Manuel Rapún |
| Date: | August 2005 |
ABSTRACT:
The aim of this paper is to test for the respective roles of regional
and sectoral factors in productivity convergence in the European Union
between 1977 and 1999. The methodology used for this is a new one that
combines an alternative version of shift–share analysis with various
results quoted in the literature on personal income distribution. The
empirical evidence suggests that regional disparity in productivity in
the European Union is closely related to intrinsic differences between
regions. Whatever the case, the results that emerge also reveal the fundamental
role of the country effect in accounting for regional disparities in
income per worker in Europe. In addition our empirical results support
the relevance of one-sector growth models to explicate per-capita income
disparities in the European regions.
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| Paper: | Regional Inequality in the European Union: Does Industry Mix Matter? |
| Author: | Roberto Ezcurra, Carlos Gil and Pedro Pascual |
| Date: | February 2005 |
ABSTRACT:
This paper examines the degree of bipolarization of regional per capita
income distribution in the European Union between 1977 and 1999. The
results obtained reveal a decrease in regional bipolarization in the
European context over the study period as a consequence of various factors
working in opposite directions. Likewise, the analysis carried out shows
that the national component is the main factor explaining regional bipolarization
in the European Union, while the geographical location and the productive
structure in 1977 seem to have less relevance.
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| Paper: | Identifying and Interpreting Convergence Clusters in Europe, submitted to the 'Economic Journal' |
| Author: | Corrado, L., R. Martin and M. Weeks |
| Date: | 23 January 2004 |
ABSTRACT:
In this paper we examine the spatial and temporal distribution of per
capita income across Europe. We base our analysis on a cluster methodology
which allows for an endogenous selection of regional clusters using a
multivariate test for stationarity where the number and composition of
clusters are determined by the application of pairwise tests of regional
contrasts. To circumvent the problem of how to interpret the composition
of resulting convergence clusters we construct a number of testable hypotheses
based upon orderings consistent with the findings of recent studies on
regional growth and convergence. We do this using a set of geographical,
socio-demographic and political indicators measuring contiguity and institutional
similarity, accessibility, specialisation, region specific levels of
agglomeration and regional classification according to the European Union
Structural Fund objectives. One of the contributions of our study is
a method which facilitates the interpretation of the cluster outcomes
on the basis of the factors identified above. Unlike previous studies,
we present our results using a geographic representation of regions across
Europe.
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| Paper: | Growth and convergence in European Regions |
| Author: | Michaela Votteler, ifo Dresden berichtet |
| Date: | January 2004 |
ABSTRACT:
The regions of the 15 current Member States and of Poland, the Czech
Republic and Hungary display great differences in their economic strength.
These differences are apparent not only between the 18 countries but
also between regions within each individual country. Now, it is precisely
the poorer regions that will enjoy strong economic growth in the next
six years, and this should lead to a convergence in economic strength
between regions across the 18 countries. This convergence will, however,
have differing effects on the process of convergence between regions
within individual countries.
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| Paper: | Regional Disparities in Europe |
| Author: | Adalgiso Amendola, Floro Ernesto Caroleo, and Gianluigi Coppola, Università degli Studi di Salerno |
| Date | January 2004 |
ABSTRACT:
In the last decades, and particularly in the Nineties, The European Economy
has been widely characterised by regional disparities. This paper aims
to evaluate if different regional economic structures, such as productive
mix and labour market composition, contribute to this disparities and
to what extent they prevent the convergence and/or favour divergent clusters
of regions. To this purpose we shall apply a multivariate analysis method,
named STATIS, to a set of regional characteristic indicators that will
allow us to estimate some latent factors which are able to measure the
regional differences and their dynamic.
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| Paper: | Regional Inequalities and Cohesion Policies in the European Union |
| Author: | Roberto Basile, Sergio de Nardis, Alessandro Girardi, Istituto di Studi e Analisi Economica, Rome |
| Email: | r.basile@isae.it |
ABSTRACT:
In spite of the huge amount of public aids to poor regions, relative
movements in the distribution of income, labour productivity and employment
rates across European regions show no positive relation with the distribution
of the Structural Funds. Specifically, widening employment gaps and a
growing positive correlation between productivity levels and employment
rates are brought to light. Furthermore, although the distribution of
Funds committed by the Commission appears to conform to equity and cohesion
principles, once the total cost of projects - which includes the contribution
of national authorities - is considered, the image of equity is blurred.
This bias in the allocation process may have contributed to the scarce
efficiency of EU regional policy carried out during the nineties.
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| Paper: | National and Spatial Factors in EU Regional Convergence |
| Author: | Marinella Terrasi, Dipartimento de Scienze Economiche, Facoltà de Economica, Pisa, Italy |
| Email: | mterrasi@ec.unipi.it |
ABSTRACT:
The first objective of this paper is to evaluate the main results reached
in the rich literature that has flourished on the theme of European regional
convergence in recent years, with the purpose to establish whether a
consolidated knowledge of the problem has been reached. The conclusion
is that while some points have been clarified, others remain still confusing
due to the different methods of analysis, periods of time, groups of
countries and regional units that have been used. In the second part
of the paper a new analysis of European regional convergence is proposed
for the period 1975-1997. The attention is addressed to the dispersion
of regional incomes over time, which is analyzed through the Theil index
of concentration for different groups of countries and periods of time.
The Theil index is subsequently decomposed in various ways: between countries
versus within countries, productivity versus employment rate, between
macro-areas versus within macro-areas. Some interesting results emerge,
among which is the losing weight of national factors in EU regional convergence
process and the formation of an alternative spatial structure on which
to project regional policy strategies.
Note: Please contact the author for a full copy of the paper or further information about the methodology and results.
| Project: | The effects of integration for Europe’s economic geography |
| Participants: | Johannes Bröcker, Institute for Regional
Research, Faculty of Economics, University of Kiel, Germany. Annekatrin Niebuhr, Department European Integration, Hamburg Institute of International Economics, Germany. Silvia Stiller, Department European Integration, Hamburg Institute of International Economics, Germany. |
| Email: | Institute of International Economics,
Germany. broecker@economics.uni-kiel.de niebuhr@hwwa.de stiller@hwwa.de |
ABSTRACT:
The project aims at estimating the regional effects of European integration.
Particular attention is paid to the development of border regions. Theoretical
considerations suggest that the effects of integration localise especially
in areas along the national borders that become inner regions of the
integrated economy. Reducing the impediments to cross border trade and
factor mobility might offer an above average growth potential for border
regions. The empirical analysis bases on a spatial computable general
equilibrium model and focuses exclusively on the economic effects of
trade impediment reductions. In order to estimate the reduction of trade
barriers in Europe and the resulting welfare effects for European regions
the model is calibrated for several years between 1975 and 1998 using
data on interregional distances, international trade and regional GDP.
| Project: | Regional adjustment dynamics |
| Participants: | Joachim Möller, Institute for Economics
and Econometrics, University of Regensburg, Germany, Annekatrin Niebuhr, Department European Integration, Hamburg Institute of International Economics, Germany. |
| Email: | Institute for Economics and Econometrics,
Germany. joachim.moeller@wiwi.uni-regensburg.de Institute of International Economics, Germany. niebuhr@hwwa.de |
ABSTRACT:
The aim of the project is to analyze the time series characteristics
of a regional panel data. These characteristics can be used to draw inferences
on the nature of the regional adjustment process. Theory of regional
adjustment suggests that certain regional variables are stationary while
others are not. This implications can be investigated empirically by
using panel unit root test that have been developed only recently.
In a first step we want to apply the Levin/Lin (1992), the Im/Pesaran/Shin (1997) and the Maddala/Wu (1999) test to a broad cross section of regional time series data (unemployment, employment, population and others).
| Paper: | Equilibrium and economic growth: spatial econometric models and simulations |
| Author: | Bernard Fingleton, Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge |
| Email: | bf100@cam.ac.uk |
ABSTRACT:
Economists, economic geographers and regional scientists have suggested
different and contrasting explanations of why regions grow at different
rates, and what kind of convergence, if any, one might expect from a
system of interacting regions. Despite significant differences of approach,
there are nevertheless common themes arising from the literature which
bring an element of cohesion to a diverse subject matter, namely the
relevance for understanding of returns to scale, externalities and catch
up mechanisms, and the role of exogenous shocks in real-world turbulence.
The chapter first reviews the growth literature, emphasising the importance
of these themes, and sets the modelling approach adopted in the chapter
in the context of the wider literature. It then gives new expressions
for the equilibrium implied by various related models, and an iterative
approach is developed to accommodate turbulence leading to ‘stochastic
equilibrium’. As an illustration of the potential of the general
methodology, the chapter finally focuses on a preferred single equation
spatial econometric model (Anselin, 1988 and Anselin and Florax, 1995).
This model leads to substantive empirical evidence regarding causes of productivity growth variations, and the parameter estimates are used to calculate steady-states and stochastic equilibrium for manufacturing productivity ratios for 178 regions of the European Union (EU) (Armstrong 1995, Cheshire and Carbonaro 1995).
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| Paper: | Regional economic growth and convergence: insights from a spatial econometric perspective |
| Author: | Bernard Fingleton, Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge |
| Email: | bf100@cam.ac.uk |
ABSTRACT:
Economists, economic geographers and regional scientists have suggested
different and contrasting explanations of why regions grow at different
rates, and what kind of convergence, if any, one might expect from a
system of interacting regions. Despite significant differences of approach,
there are nevertheless common themes arising from the literature which
bring an element of cohesion to a diverse subject matter, namely the
relevance for understanding of returns to scale, externalities and catch
up mechanisms, and the role of exogenous shocks in real-world turbulence.
The chapter first reviews the growth literature, emphasising the importance
of these themes, and sets the modelling approach adopted in the chapter
in the context of the wider literature. It then gives new expressions
for the equilibrium implied by various related models, and an iterative
approach is developed to accommodate turbulence leading to ‘stochastic
equilibrium’. As an illustration of the potential of the general
methodology, the chapter finally focuses on a preferred single equation
spatial econometric model (Anselin, 1988 and Anselin and Florax, 1995).
This model leads to substantive empirical evidence regarding causes of productivity growth variations, and the parameter estimates are used to calculate steady-states and stochastic equilibrium for manufacturing productivity ratios for 178 regions of the European Union (EU) (Armstrong 1995, Cheshire and Carbonaro 1995).
Downloadable file:
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| Paper: | Economic geography with spatial econometrics: a 'third way' to analyse economic development and 'equilibrium', with application to the EU regions |
| Author: | Bernard Fingleton, Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge |
| Email: | bf100@cam.ac.uk |
ABSTRACT:
The main item of agreement between the 'new' and 'old' economic geography
is the role of increasing returns in regional economic development. This
provides a focal point for the model of this paper, which aims to highlight
the existence of a 'third way' somewhere between the analysis provided
by these two competing modes of explanation. Increasing returns are represented
by the Verdoorn Law linking manufacturing output and productivity growth,
which is augmented to include endogenous technical progress involving
diffusion, spillover effects and putative human capital effects. The
model is estimated using data for regions of the EU, thus emphasizing
the need to confront theory with data. The approach of the paper thus
avoids 'the lost scientific cause' of much of contemporary 'economic
geography proper' and the constraints posed by the theory of 'new economic
geography'. The implications of the model are explored and assumptions
are imposed leading to a 'stochastic steady state' as an approximation
to real world turbulence, and as an alternative to the Markov chain stochastic
equilibrium suggested by Quah (1993). The paper shows that the implications
of interregional spillovers are faster productivity growth and higher
productivity levels, a trend that is accelerated with endogenously determined
spillover. Without catch up, regional productivity levels diverge with
no stable steady state and one region becomes increasingly dominant,
but catch up ensures that cross-regional productivity growth rates tend
to equality.
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| Paper: | Convergence after Divergence? Regional Growth in Europe. |
| Author: | Gabriele Tondl, Research Institute for European Affairs, Wirtschaftsuniversitaet Wien, Austria |
| Email: | gabriele.tondl@wu-wien.ac.at |
ABSTRACT:
This book looks at the economic growth of EU regions from a
theoretical as well as an empirical perspective. The issue is settled
in the context of EU integration and the EU´s cohesion problem.
The first part of the volume discusses the question of EU regional
income convergence in the light of neo-classical growth theory, new
growth theory and the new economic geography and concludes that EU
integration should promote convergence in the long run. A complementary
econometric analysis going back as far as to the 1960s suggests that
regional convergence re-emerges after the creation of the European
Single Market and that the core-periphery pattern now weakens. The
second part of the book discusses the impact of a number of growth
determinants such as investment of firms, public infrastructure, human
capital and innovation activity on regional growth. The results of
an econometric panel data analysis for the Southern EU regions suggest
that catching-up of lagging regions is predominately determined by
the availability of human capital and public infrastructure. The third
part of the book investigates how EU structural policies attempt to
improve these growth factors in weaker EU areas.
| Paper: | What determined the uneven growth of Europe´s Southern Regions? |
| Author: | Gabriele Tondl, Research Institute for European Affairs, Wirtschaftsuniversitaet Wien, Austria |
| Email: | gabriele.tondl@wu-wien.ac.at |
ABSTRACT:
Since 1975, the extent of catching-up has been very different across
Southern regions. Starting from the common arguments of growth theory,
the paper wishes to show whether differences in regional income and growth
can be attributed to different endowment in human capital, differences
in private or public investment level, to structural imbalances, and
labour force participation. The investigated panel consists of regional
time series for the period 1975 to 1994 and includes NUTS II level regions
of Greece, Spain, and the Italian South. Estimation of the impact of
the variables on regional income is effected in a dynamic panel data
model applying a GMM estimation procedure. The results indicate that
the income level of Southern EU regions is largely determined by employment/educational
levels and past public investment, while the impact of private investment
is not significant. One may follow that EU regional policies should predominately
focus on the human factor. Assistance to member countries to upgrade
public infrastructures may be continued, but private investment incentives
should be curbed.
| Paper: | The Changing Pattern of Regional Convergence in Europe |
| Author: | Gabriele Tondl, Research Institute for European Affairs, Wirtschaftsuniversitaet Wien, Austria |
| Email: | gabriele.tondl@wu-wien.ac.at |
ABSTRACT:
The article provides an assessment of the regional convergence process
between the Western European regions since the 1950s. Two sets of issues
are addressed: (a) Is there sufficient evidence of regional convergence?
If so, has the speed of convergence changed over time and is this speed
satisfactory. (b) Is convergence a phenomenon limited to the core EC
regions as often claimed or did it encompass Europe's Southern and Northern
regions as well? The investigation follows the methodology suggested
by Barro and Sala-i-Martin to study the process of convergence in a neo-classical
model of growth and to assess its speed. In contrast to the results obtained
we then put an estimation of convergence based on panel data techniques,
which shows the size of individual regional effects determining steady
state income. The results suggest that convergence had set in at a rather
high rate during the fifties and sixties. European regions seemed to
have joined on a common convergence path until 1973. After 1975, convergence
slowed down distinctly and several poorer regions on the Southern periphery
started to show a weakness in convergence. Slow convergence in the 1980s
was paired with an increasing deviation in steady state income between
rich and poor regions, which a number of the latter could not recover
when convergence set in again in the late 1980s.
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