Papers presented at conferences by our economists
| Conference: | Regional Studies Association Regional Productivity Forum Seminar, also submitted to Regional Studies Special Issue on ‘Regional Competitiveness’ |
| Paper: | Competitiveness, Productivity and Economic Growth across the European Regions' |
| Author: | Gardiner, B, R. Martin and P. Tyler |
| Date: | 15 January 2004 |
Downloadable File:
PDF format 1.2M
| Paper: | Educating Beta - will
economic growth and convergence quicken in a Europe of increasingly
diverse regions?', (runner-up in the Society of Business Economists Rybczynski Prize 2003) |
| Author: | Brettell, S |
| Date: | December 2003 |
ABSTRACT:
The ten new members joining the European Union club in May 2004 will
considerably increase its spatial economic diversity. This paper assesses
whether integration will bring the economic gains envisaged by the policy
makers.
It compares the outcomes and assumptions of traditional comparative advantage models with ‘new economy’ models, which suggest there may be a sustained disadvantaged to some regions despite trade, because of the build up of competitive benefits for advanced regions.
It assesses the experience of previous enlargements of the EU using a regional analysis of the effect of EU enlargement on growth and convergence from the 1980s. This shows enlargement is associated with small but positive gains in convergence and that faster convergence also occurred in the faster growth years following each of the last two enlargements. It shows the top quartile of highest GDP per head regions in the EU15 have also benefited, giving evidence that there is a convergence club of richer regions and that there are regional clusters.
An enlarged EU has experienced very slow rates of convergence. This may be because the effect of union is to concentrate capital, knowledge-based activity and trade in certain regions with subsequent regional growth positively associated with high rates of research and development.
Policies should support the activities of firms employing highly skilled workers in the enlarged EU in a way that both generates and facilitates trade in knowledge-intensive products, allowing companies to draw on a common resource of venture capital and skilled workers to ease the costs of information dissemination. Links between regions should exploit this knowledge base with trade as the primary medium for technology transfer. The role for government is important but complex with external economies justifying policies that encourage training for employees and education for the entire population
Downloadable file:
Microsoft Word format 96kb
| Conference: | Regional Studies Association International Conference, Pisa |
| Paper: | Regional Competitiveness Indicators for Europe - Audit, Database Construction and Analysis |
| Author: | Gardiner, B |
| Date: | 12-15 April, 2003 |
For many years research on European regional issues, particularly long-term
time series research, has been hampered by the inadequacy of the available
data. The series that are available are often several years out of
date, with holes and ragged edges meaning that analysis requiring a
consistent data set has not been possible. More recently, the introduction
of ESA95 data on the Regio database has compounded the problem, as
the new accounts data generally only go back as far as 1995, often
with no cross-over period against the previous NACE 1970 database.
This paper reports on the construction of a comprehensive set of regional competitiveness indicators for Europe, including the European Union and candidate countries. Various sources have been investigated, included Regio and other Eurostat databases, the OECD Territorial Database, National databases, and data from private bodies, eg trade organisations.
The paper covers the main tasks concerned with the construction of the database, and subsequent analysis that has taken place. Firstly, the contents of the various sources of regional data are reviewed and catalogued, with a check on availability, quantity and quality of data. Secondly, the data are classified by separating the various indicators into variables which are essentially measures of the outcome of competitiveness (output indicators, eg GDP per capita) and those which contribute towards this success (inputs). The input indicators are categorised into broad themes, covering basic infrastructure and accessibility, human capital, institutional features, and other factors, eg R&D, innovation demography, property, the information society. The construction of the database is the next major task to be reported, in particular the methods used to construct a system of regional accounts where both breadth (geographical coverage, time period) and depth (indicator coverage) extend upon existing sources. To conclude, some findings from analysis of the data are reported, looking at long-term trends within and across the countries covered.
The results from this work have potentially profound implications for the way European regional data are analysed, as the resulting database opens the door for more in-depth analysis of regional competitiveness than has previously been possible.
The paper has been prepared as part of a larger project for the European Commission (DG Regio) looking into factors affecting regional competitiveness, which in turn will feed into the 2003 Cohesion Report. The results presented here are with the permission of the Directorate General for Regional Policy.
Downloadable file:
Microsoft
Word format 1.8Mb
PDF
Format 226Kb
| Conference: | European Regional Science Association Congress, Dortmund |
| Paper: | The Development of a System of European Regional Purchasing Power Parities |
| Author: | Brettell, S, Gardiner, B |
| Date: | 27-31 August 2002 |
This paper discusses ways in which a system of Purchasing Power Parities
defined at the NUTS-2 regional disaggregation could be developed, and
what the implications could be for EU policy, particularly the evaluation
of Structural Funds and the conclusions made thus far about regional
convergence and development.
Currently regional GDP in current prices is deflated using national purchasing power indices, mostly derived from surveys undertaken in the capital cities of the Member States. For some Member States, the national PPPs are corrected for price differences within the country, using spatial correction factors for individual price surveys, given these factors are provided by the countries. Clearly, therefore, for the majority of the countries, these estimates of regional GDP do not take any account of significant differences in cost of living within countries. This paper draws on the preliminary results of a research project being undertaken for Eurostat to examine options for deriving a system of regional prices. Much research has already been published at the level of international prices, partly through the International Comparison Programme (ICP), but little work has been carried out on inter-regional differences.
The paper reviews briefly the theoretical and empirical literature on national PPPs. It then discusses key conceptual issues, including the problem of the difference between expenditure-based measures (used for national PPPs) versus the output-based procedure used to estimate regional GDP. There follows a review of what data currently exists to inform estimates, particularly the detailed tables of consumer price indices (CPI. The paper then concludes the findings and looks forward to further developments of the work.
Downloadable file:
Microsoft Word format 1.3Mb
PDF Format 62Kb
| Conference: | Workshop on Economic Modelling for Forecasting and Impact Analysis, Vienna |
| Paper: | A Forecasting Model for European Regional Analysis |
| Author: | Gardiner, B |
| Date: | 14-15 May 2001 |
For the last ten years, Cambridge Econometrics has been engaged in European
regional forecasting and data analysis, principally through its leadership
of the ERECO annual report series European Regional Prospects (ERP),
but also through related research undertaken for the European Commission.
The ERP report currently presents pan-European forecasts at the NUTS-2
level of regional disaggregation for all Member States plus Norway
and Switzerland, and is being extended to three new CEE countries,
Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic.
The model used to produce the forecasts, EUREGM, has evolved over the years to cope with new regional definitions, increased availability of data, and the addition of new countries. The modelling methodology has also been revised, and this paper presents the most recent work in the approach to the next ERP report, to be released at the end of May 2001.
The main output of the model is annual forecasts of output and employment by region and sector over a six-year horizon, and there are a number of stages involved in preparing the final forecast. These include data collection, processing and analysis, equation formation and estimation, assumption formation, model solution, and the off-model adjustments made to incorporate expert views. This paper discusses the issues posed by each of these stages, the options considered and the approach adopted.
Downloadable file:
Microsoft Word format 225kb
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