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 Cambridge Econometrics March 2008
ERP plans to expand coverage in line with possible EU accession New Eurostat population data and projections Study on the best and worst-performing regions in the EU ERP has extended City Coverage to include 7 additional cities Development of a Visual Basic Tool with data and forecasts on 250 cities Study on intra-regional disparity in the East of England
EU Flag The 2008 edition of ERP and the associated database are due out in May, with analysis and forecasts across selected city-regions and all NUTS2 and NUTS3 regions to 2012. There are a number of developments this year of which the main ones are summarised below:
 
European Regional Prospects now covers all 27 member states of the EU and we plan to expand our coverage in line with progress of other states towards EU accession

Map1In the 2008 edition of European Regional Prospects all 27 member states of the EU are covered. The most recent extension of our coverage by economic indicators includes Bulgaria and Romania; the coverage includes GVA, employment, investment and remuneration at the NUTS2 level as well as GVA and employment at the NUTS3 level.

We intend to expand the European Regional Database further, in line with progress of other states towards EU accession and in response to demand from our clients. The next additions to the database are expected to be Croatia and Turkey. Although information on these countries will not be included in the summer 2008 report, we shall shortly begin a review of the data available for these countries and evaluate the possibility of inclusion in the 2009 report.
The coverage in the City Regions part of European Regional Prospects has been extended to include seven additional cities from the new Member States

CrestsThe European Regional Database and the report, European Regional Prospects, have extended their city coverage to treat six further City Regions from the new Member states in full detail and Ljubljana in somewhat less detail. The six new city regions are: Sofia, Tallinn, Riga, Vilnius, Bucharest (Bucuresti) and Bratislava. In the summer 2008 release, forecasts for GVA, employment, population and remuneration for these City Regions will be provided in the European Regional Database, and the important features of the cities' economies along with major developments in their property markets and transport infrastructure will be discussed in the report. The descriptions of the six cities are being provided by expert consultants based in each of the six countries.

Ljubljana will be covered in less detail in 2008, with a view to providing a comprehensive coverage in 2009.

 
CE intends to improve the quality of its population forecasts by drawing on the new data and projections about population published by Eurostat
Eurostat logoEurostat has published a new set of population scenario projections for the EU-27 regions, which now take into account international and inter-regional migration. These data and projections will be incorporated in the summer 2008 edition of European Regional Prospects. We expect that use of these projections will raise the quality of CE’s population forecasts in future editions of the report.

CE has developed a Visual Basic Tool to cover more than 250 primary and secondary cities

ComputerWe are continually looking for ways to make the European Regional data more accessible to subscribers. One means to this end is the development of a tool (created in Visual Basic) that will contain data and forecasts for key macro-economic indicators for more than 250 cities. Although clients can already construct datasets for any city-region they choose by drawing on the NUTS3 regional data contained in Regional Database, we aim to make this process easier for clients by predefining 250 primary and secondary cities in a spreadsheet-based application. The cities included in this application are the 250 large and medium-sized cities within the EU27 used in the Urban Audit study which was led by CE.

We plan to release the Visual Basic Tool in summer 2008.

 

DG REGIOResearch on the main factors of regional growth: An in-depth study of the best and worst performing European regions
CE has recently been commissioned by DG Regio to undertake a four-year programme of work to deepen the understanding of the reasons for differential economic development between the regions of the EU27 (See www.euregionalgrowth.eu). The CE-led team will use a combination of statistical techniques, econometric analysis and case studies of regions from each of the EU-27 countries to identify those (NUTS2) regions that have performed well and those that have performed poorly (relative to EU and/or national average), to identify and analyse the underlying factors of this diverse performance, and to draw out broad policy conclusions. The findings of the study will also potentially feed into the European Regional Service, by refining the existing model and by identifying economic and geographical factors and trends of interest.
Research on intra-regional disparity: a case study of the East of England
In the faster-growing regions of the EU-15, average regional growth rates can mask serious disparities within a region. A case study, carried out for Bedfordshire County Council, reveals, that even though the East of England is one of the fastest-growing regions in Europe (ranked 16th in all EU-15 regions in a ranking of output growth over 1995-2006), economic activity and wealth is concentrated in urban areas, high-technology corridors and areas closer to richer parts of London. The more rural and industrial parts of the region continue to lag regional growth and have many industries that are in long-term decline. This highlights the fact that, even though wealth generation may not be a problem for the more developed regions in the EU-15, it is the distribution of this wealth within the regions that could become an obstacle to growth.
   

For more information on the European Regional Service contact:

Sadia Sheikh
Manager of European Regional Service