UK > Regions, local & cities > Consultancy Capability > Regional and local sustainable development
Regional and local sustainable development
Sustainable consumption and production is a key strategic priority for policy-makers.
The government is committed to long-term targets in CO2 reduction and the Committee on Climate Change will be advising on the level for the UK's first three carbon budgets. Regions and local bodies are being increasingly called on by central government to provide added value in delivering sustainable development and many have identified per capita reductions in CO2 emissions as a key target in regional strategies and Local Area Agreements.
Regional and local bodies are therefore having to address the increasingly important but complex issue of how changes in economic activity might impact on the environment, in terms of pollution, climate change and on the use of natural resources as well as the impact that international, national and sector-based initiatives focused on achieving environmental outcomes will have on economic development opportunities.
Tools and competence
CE provides core expertise in using modelling and statistical analysis to support strategic planning and policy analysis together with broad and deep appreciation of policy environment. Specifically, we offer
- an established national and international reputation for understanding the links between the economy, energy and the environment and for analysing regional and industrial structural change
- rigorous and detailed analysis, combining formal modelling and other statistical techniques with vital qualitative information
- the wider perspective within which particular policies or strategies are operating, a context that is easily overlooked in sector or policy-specific analysis
- REEIO, a model developed specifically for, and with, the UK Environment Agency, Regional Development Agencies, Regional Assemblies and the National Assembly for Wales to provide policy makers with a firm basis on which to assess the impact of regional policies and programmes on the environment.
- projections of energy use and CO2 emissions in local areas that take account of future patterns of economic development, underlying trends in energy use and an assessment of the impact of national energy policies.
The development and application of REEIO has been central in much of our work in the regional environment arena. However, our experience in this field is much broader, as these examples of projects we have undertaken recently indicate.
For more information about our expertise in related areas, see:
Regional and local economic development
Energy and environment
Examples of our work
Implications of Climate Change Act
Yorkshire Forward
Yorkshire Forward commissioned CE, in association with Arup to investigate the impact of the Climate Change Act on Yorkshire and the Humber's economy and to make broad policy recommendations. In the first phase of the project, a policy review was undertaken of EU, national and regional climate change mitigation policy; from this the project team identified four types of implications; price competitiveness, market opportunities, direct market threats and subsidies. We also investigated the economic, energy and emissions profiles of Yorkshire's economy. The combination of these two elements allowed a qualitative assessment to inform a consultation process, undertaken by Arup, with key industry representatives. The project team compiled all the information to provide a quantification of the impacts on the region's economy. The second phase of the project required the project team to develop and test a set of broad policy measures to help the region adjust to the economic challenges.
Resource-Use and CO2 Emissions Scenario Modelling
East of England Development Agency
This project, led by Cambridge Econometrics with inputs from SQW Consulting, investigated the future trends in resource use in the East of England and considered possible policy options that could be used to help the region meet the environmental targets set out in the draft Regional Economic Strategy. The study used the latest version of the REEIO (Regional Economy Environment Input Output) model for the East of England developed by CE to assess the implications for various environmental indicators, including the generation of waste, use of energy and associated CO2 emissions, that could arise from a range of economic development scenarios and current trends in resource use. In the light of these emerging trends, a series of possible policy responses that could help the region meet its targets and the impact of the most appropriate policies was then modelled using REEIO.
Business Opportunities and Challenges Presented by Carbon Emissions Targets
Northern Ireland Department for Enterprise, Trade and Investment
This project, undertaken by a consortium led by CE, was commissioned by Northern Ireland's Department for Enterprise, Trade and Investment (DETI) to study the opportunities and challenges presented to Northern Ireland businesses by the CO2 emissions reductions set out in the draft UK Climate Change Bill. The study prepared a historical database of CO2 emissions by the business sector (led by AEA Energy and Environment) to provide a baseline, made projections for CO2 emissions to 2020 under a business-as-usual scenario (CE), identified the implications for firms and possible policy responses (SQW), and prepared a range of scenarios for alternative emissions reductions targets by 2020 to allow the economic implications to be calculated (CE). To prepare the CO2 emissions scenarios, CE developed a Northern Ireland-tailored version of the REEIO model which distinguishes the sectors of the economy in detail so that the implications for firms in the business sector could be identified.
Stabilisation of the Ecological Footprint Within the South East
SEERA
This project, led by CAG Consultants and also involving Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) and the Centre for Urban & Regional Ecology (CURE) at Manchester University, considered the measures necessary for the region to achieve the targets it set for its ecological footprints. It did this through developing a series of scenarios, the impact of which on the region were analysed using the REEIO and REAP models.
CE’s primary role in the project was to model the impact of the scenario on production in the region using the Regional Economy Environment Input Output (REEIO) model. In doing so CE drew on the considerable work it had undertaken at national level into the scale of the impact of various policy measures announced, such as in the 2007 Energy White Paper.
Project: REEIO Model Update
SCPnet
This project, led by CE, provided the SCPnet partners with updated tools to assess the current and future links between the regional economies and environmental pressures. In particular the project provided detailed databases of regional energy use and emissions by detailed sector for 2005 (the most recent year for which data are available) and versions of the REEIO model for the English regions updated to incorporate this data. The data on regional energy use and associated emissions was constructed by AEA Energy & Environment. CE utilised the information in the REEIO model, together with recent forecasts for the regional economies (as published in Regional Economic Prospects, July 2007). The structure of REEIO was also developed to ensure it remained appropriate to the current policy needs. For example, modifications were made to identify domestic and international air transport separately, and to include biofuels within the list of fuels identified.
In addition, the project delivered consistent databases of regional energy use and emissions for earlier years, 2000 and 1990. This is the first time such data have been prepared, and will enable SCPnet’s partners to develop a greater understanding of progress being made towards policy targets.
The data tools were accompanied by detailed reports explaining in detail the method by which the data were constructed and the projections derived.
Evaluating the Contribution of Regional Strategies to Climate Change
Yorkshire and Humber Assembly
This project, undertaken in collaboration with Arup and the Stockholm Environment Institute, sought to understand the role and contribution that the various regional strategies made to the adaption to, and mitigation against, climate change. The work combined a qualitative assessment of over 50 policy documents, including the Regional Economic Strategy, the Regional Housing Strategy and the Regional Spatial Strategy, with quantitative modelling of alternative scenarios using the REEIO and REAP models. CE's role in the project was to model and interpret the impact of the alternative scenarios on production in the region using REEIO.
The contributions of the various strategies were identified through the construction of four alternative scenarios: 'Economic Growth in Isolation' to represent the case where the region went for economic growth without any consideration for environmental issues; 'Regional Strategies Statutory Scenario', which took all the targets that have been adopted and assessed their potential effect on carbon dioxide emissions; 'Regional Strategies Vision Scenario' demonstrated what the carbon dioxide emissions in the future could be if these aspirations were turned into reality; and a 'One Planet Living Scenario' which was constructed by workshop participants to provide an understanding of what a 'one planet region' would look like. A key challenge for the project was to interpret the policy documents to determine the assumptions necessary required by the models.
Regional economy-environment modelling
EA/SCPnet
This work covers a number of projects to develop and apply economy-environment models for UK regions and countries which show the consequences of a given rate of growth and pattern of economic development for key indicators of environmental sustainability in the region. The latest project provided detailed databases of regional energy use and emissions by detailed sector for 2005 (the most recent year for which data are available) and updated existing versions of the REEIO model for the English regions to incorporate this data. The structure of REEIO was also developed to ensure it remained appropriate to the current policy needs. In addition, the project delivered consistent databases of regional energy use and emissions for earlier years, 2000 and 1990. This is the first time such data have been prepared, and will enable SCPnet's partners to develop a greater understanding of progress being made towards policy targets.
The data tools were accompanied by detailed reports explaining in detail the method by which the data were constructed and the projections derived.
Assessing regional performance in promoting Sustainable Consumption and Production (SCP)
SCPnet
This project compiled historical data (for 2003) and projections for selected indicators of resource use, resource efficiency and emissions of pollutants for the regions of England. It updated an earlier analysis carried out for data relating to 1999. The project also gathered information relating to actions being undertaken by regional bodies to promote the sustainable consumption and production agenda. The report and database are published on the SCPnet website (www.scpnet.org.uk).
Scenario Planning - Energy in the North East of England
One NorthEast
This project, led by Optimat, was commissioned to help One NorthEast and its partners understand the potential implications of the review of the national energy policy. The project developed a series of alternative scenarios presenting how the North East might look by 2020 under alternative national strategies. Alternative scenarios included a programme of new nuclear build, increased focus on non-nuclear renewable energy and increased focus on energy efficiency.
Greenhouse gas emissions benchmarking and monitoring for local authorities in Yorkshire and Humber
Yorkshire and Humber Assembly
This study developed practical proposals for a regional approach with a package of support for local authorities to undertake the benchmarking and monitoring of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs). The objective was to assist the Yorkshire and Humber Assembly (YHA) in its strategic role of developing a regional climate change action plan and coordinating its implementation as part of the overall Regional Sustainable Development Framework. The analysis took account of current work on this in the Yorkshire and Humber region, and also drew on good practice and experience in national programmes and local authorities in other parts of England and Wales.
The Environmental Economy of the South of England
South East England Development Agency
The study provided a definition of the environmental sector in the South East economy and a baseline estimate of its size and contribution to the region's economy and made comparisons with the sector's scale, strengths and weaknesses in other regions. This was achieved by combining analysis of published datasets with qualitative information gained through consultations with key business groups. The study also reviewed a range of alternative environmental sector development scenarios within the context of agreed sustainable development objectives, quantifying the scale of growth in each and identifying the mechanisms required for each to occur.
Analysing trends in commercial and industrial waste in England
UK Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs
The aim of this project was to analyse and interpret trends evident in the England commercial and industrial (C&I) waste data for 2002/03, in comparison with the data published in the Agency's 1999 National Waste Production Survey. The project reviewed summary results describing the growth in England's C&I waste arisings since the previous survey and conducted an analysis to determine what had been happening to waste-intensity (waste per unit of GVA, in real terms) in aggregate and by sector, and the extent to which the trends in aggregate are explained by changes in the composition of industries (eg faster growth in less waste-intensive sectors) or by changes in the composition of inputs per unit of output of industries (derived from input-output data on expenditure on inputs). The project then produced projections for C&I waste in England on a 'business as usual' basis using the Regional Economy-Environment Input-Output (REEIO) model previously developed by Cambridge Econometrics.
Strategic Environmental Assessment of the Regional Economic Strategy
East Midlands Development Agency
Regional Economic Strategies are among the plans and programmes that are required to undergo a strategic environmental assessment (SEA). This project, led by Halcrow, provided a SEA and a Sustainability Appraisal (SA) of the consultation draft and final versions of the RES. It ensured that the strategy contributed positively to the sustainable development of the East Midlands and identified potential negative impacts and potential mitigation solutions.
Cambridge Econometrics' role in the project involved applying the version of the REEIO software tool for the East Midlands help by EMDA to illustrate the potential impact of alternative patterns of economic development on waste arisings, demand for energy and associated emissions to air and to quantify the effects that alternative mitigation strategies could have.
Informing the East Midlands Regional Waste and Energy Strategies
East Midlands Development Agency and the Environment Agency
This project supported EMDA and the Environment Agency Midlands region, together with their partners in the region, in their work to inform the development of the Regional Energy and Regional Waste Strategies in the East Midlands. The project was designed as a collaboration between CE and the clients' staff to develop in-house capability in the region to use REEIO (the Regional Economy-Environment Input-Output Model developed under the REWARD programme) and other tools to inform strategic thinking in the areas of waste and energy use. A key objective was that the scenarios and associated analysis should be owned by the regional agencies and their partners rather than delivered by external consultants.
A series of workshops were held in the region, to which those involved in preparing or responding to the waste and energy strategies were invited, from which the outline of various scenarios for future trends in waste and energy use was developed. CE prepared an action plan which set out the steps necessary to move from the qualitative scenarios developed in the workshops to a quantified analysis using REEIO, including documentation of assumptions made to provide an audit trail for the analysis . CE then assisted EMDA and its partners in implementing the plan in the REEIO software. The project concluded with a follow-up workshop where EMDA and its partners presented the findings from modelling the scenarios to the workshop participants.
Commercial Water Demand Forecasts for Severn Trent
Severn Trent Water
Severn Trent Water (STW) commissioned CE to produce forecasts of commercial water demand and trade effluent to 2035/6. The forecasts were required by STW for its business plan and income calculations, and for its submissions to the Environment Agency and the water regulator (Ofwat). CE provided STW with forecasts of water demand by sector, water resource zone and tariff band, and forecasts of trade effluent volume and load by sector and tariff band. A model was developed and provided to STW to enable it to run its own scenarios in-house.
Forecasts of Water Demand
Bristol Water
This study produced forecasts for the main four components of water demand to 2024/5. The study followed the recommendations made in A Best Practice Guide to Forecasting Demand Components, previously prepared for UKWIR/EA by CE. A micro-components framework was developed to forecast measured and unmeasured household water demand. Both demand components were forecast under a ‘business as usual’ scenario and a ‘dry weather’ scenario. Forecasts of measured non-household demand for water were determined by relating demand by various separate sectors to local economic activity.
For further information email:
Anthony Barker
Director