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UK Economic Policy
UK Economic Policy
Energy prices and production
As the global economy has started to pick up, so too have global oil demand and prices. In this forecast, we assume that long-term world economic growth will continue to put upward pressure on world energy prices.
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Fiscal Policy
The June budget implemented a sharper slowdown in current public expenditure (and cuts in real terms) than had been planned by the previous government, and confirmed the previously-announced sharp cuts in investment spending over the next three years. We expect borrowing to fall, but not as rapidly as in the OBR forecast because we are less optimistic about GDP growth.
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Monetary Policy
Although inflation has accelerated to more than the 3% upper limit target for policy, we expect the weakness of the recovery to prevent the need for monetary policy to be tightened until 2011. The sharp recovery in some asset prices appears to have weakened in recent months, allaying fears that loose monetary policy might already be translating into a renewed bubble.
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Population and Work Force
The labour force in the UK will grow slowly as the population ages and there will be a rapid increase in the number of pensioners in the UK over 2010-20.
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