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Examples of projects using LEFM
Project: Future Facing Accessment of the Devon Economy
Client: Devon County Council
Period: 2011
This project, led by SQW Consulting, provided support to Devon County Council in the development of its Local Economic Assessment (LEA) - 'Devonomics - the Devon Economy at your fingertips'. The work addressed a number of identified gaps within the draft LEA to improve interpretation of the county’s past economic performance, and provided a forward-looking analysis which developed alternative scenarios for future growth and identified the key sensitivities associated with these. CE's role was to develop the forward-looking scenarios, with a particular emphasis on the challenges faced by the county in raising the level of productivity to match the average for the South West as a whole. The work was implemented using a version of the Local Economy Forecasting Model (LEFM) tailored to the Devon Economy.
Project: Support for North West Economic Forecasting Panel
Client: Northwest Development Agency
Period: 2004 - 2010
This project, led by SQW, provided ongoing support to the North West's independent Regional Economic Forecasting Panel in its analysis of regional economy and its future prospects and in the production of high-profile dissemination reports. The formal outputs each year comprise two short-term forecast reports reviewing prospects over the next three years, and a long-term report that considers prospects some 20 years out. In addition, over the period of our involvement we have sought with the Panel to deepen its understanding of the performance of the North West economy, to widen and develop the issues it considers and to develop it as an asset for the region and its policy makers. Topics that have been developed over time include the potential implications of city-regions to the prospects for the North West, the nature of the productivity gap with the UK as a whole, and the effects of in-migration on the long-term growth prospects of the region.
CE's specific responsibilities to the project include providing the core content of the short-term forecast reports drawing on contextual information on the future prospects for the world and UK economies, making high-level presentations at panel meetings to help members form a view on prospects, developing the Panel's subsequent forecasts for the North West and implementing these in a version of the Local Economy Forecasting Model (LEFM) software for subsequent use by the NWDA, and developing and implementing the Panel's long-term forecasts as well as technical support to the Panel in developing and exploring the economic arguments.
Project: Forecasts and Futures Scenarios for the Economy of Surrey
Client: Surrey County Council
Period: 2010
This project, led by SQW Consulting, developed a series of alternative development paths for the Surrey economy. The analysis was used in a series of workshops with business and public sector stakeholders in the county and was an important input to the Local Economic Assessment for the county.
CE’s role in the study was: to evaluate the underlying performance of the Surrey economy compared to that of comparator local economies; to assist in developing the alternative development narratives, and to quantify the scenarios in a tailored version of the LEFM software.
Project: Update to Shoreham Port Development Strategy
Client: South East England Development Agency
Period: 2009
This project, led by BBP Regeneration, updated the earlier work carried out by the same project team to develop SEEDA's economic development strategy for Shoreham Port. CE's role in the project was to provide 'business-as-usual' projections of employment by sector, for Adur (the district in which Shoreham lies) and the neighbouring districts of Brighton & Hove and Worthing, and to develop several alternative scenarios to examine how development at Shoreham might impact on future employment growth. The scenarios took into account the potential increase in population from development of housing on the site, and the impact of various alternative development plans targeting particular employment sectors.
Project: Milton Keynes South Midlands Growth Study
Client: South East England Development Agency
Period: 2009
SQW Consulting and Cambridge Econometrics (CE) were commissioned by SEEDA, on behalf of the MKSM Economic Development Group, to prepare an evidence base of the likely economic development trajectory of the Milton Keynes South Midlands (MKSM) sub-region. CE's role was to provide 'business-as-usual' projections of employment for MKSM, and then develop a 'growth' scenario that takes into account planned population growth in the sub-region. The baseline projections and scenario were developed using CE's Local Economy Forecasting Model (LEFM), tailored to the MKSM economy.
Project: East Sussex Economic Model and Forecast
Client: East Sussex County Council
Period: 2008
East Sussex County Council (ESCC) commissioned CE to develop a model of the East Sussex Economy which could be used to develop scenarios and test the impact of various policy interventions on the county's economy. The model was based on CE's Local Economy Forecasting Model (LEFM), with additional modules developed to meet the specific user requirements of the client. The model was developed in consultation with the client, and the development process started with a workshop with ESCC and its partners to determine the drivers and outputs to be included in the model. The model was designed so that further scenarios and sensitivity analyses could be carried out in-house by ESCC in the future.
Assumptions that can be changed in the model include population growth, skill levels, activity rates, sectoral output growth, productivity and employment generated by development projects. A module was developed to allow the user to look at the impact on the economy of improving skill levels on the growth of productivity, output and employment. A module was also created to allow the user to analyse the impact of development projects in the county and incorporate them into a forecast.
A range of analyses was undertaken with model to assess the potential impact of policy interventions, such as achieving the Leitch Review targets for skill levels, or implementing specific development projects. As part of the project, a forecast was developed for East Sussex which incorporated best-estimate assumptions about the scale and success of particular policies.
The project included training for ESCC staff in the use of the model, and a workshop with ESCC and partners at which the model was launched. The workshop was used to explain to the partners the sort of analysis and results that the model could be used for, and to encourage them to make requests to ESCC for analysis and scenarios using the model.
Project: Employment Land Review for York
Client: York City Council
Period: 2006
CE developed a set of detailed economic forecasts for York using its Local Economy Forecasting Model (LEFM), to inform this project, an employment land review being undertaken by SQW Ltd for York City Council. The basic projections from the model were developed by CE, in consultation with SQW, to take into account growth expected to be generated by 'Science City York', an initiative developed through a partnership between York City Council and the University of York, which provides a range of support services to assist in the creation and growth of technology-based businesses, entrepreneurs and skills development opportunities.
Project: Braintree District Futures 2025
Client: Braintree District Council
Period: 2006
This project, undertaken in collaboration with SQW Ltd, provided Braintree District Council with a set of economic visions for the district, which were used by the council to help determine a new 'direction and ambition'. A review of the current position of Braintree was undertaken, and then three alternative visions of the future for the district were developed: 'Business as Usual'; 'Braintree: Providing a Focus on Leisure, Heritage and Nature'; and 'Braintree: Where Ideas Take Shape'. Descriptions of Braintree district under each of the visions were provided, and the visions were quantified using CE's Local Economy Forecasting Model (LEFM). The visions were presented at a leadership workshop for members of Braintree District Council, during which the implications for the different areas of local policy were discussed. The results of the workshop were used to develop the council's new economic strategy.
Project: Economic Forecasting for Cardiff
Client: Cardiff Council
Period: 2006
Cardiff Council asked CE to provide a review of the prospects for the Cardiff economy, to be used by the council in developing its new economic development strategy. The council needed to identify which sectors the strategy should target, and so CE provided detailed (41 industries) economic projections for Cardiff using its Local Economy Forecasting Model (LEFM) tailored to the Cardiff economy. Clearly, Cardiff, as Wales' capital, has an important role to play in driving economic growth in South East Wales and Wales as a whole, and the new economic development strategy needed to take account of this. The key policies from the current local, sub-national and national economic strategies, which will all have an impact on future economic growth, were reviewed in the report, and conclusions were drawn from these and the economic projections.
Project: Socio-Economic Impact Assessment of the Closure of BAT's Production Facilities in Southampton
Client: Southampton City Council
Period: 2005 - 2006
This project, undertaken in collaboration with SQW Ltd and BBP Regeneration, analysed the socio-economic impact of the closure of British American Tobacco's production facilities in Southampton planned to take place over 2006-07. The project looked at the impact on the economy of Southampton and the surrounding area, the impact on the local community, and the development potential of the site that would become available. The result of the project was a Mitigation Action Plan that was used by the client in developing its response to the closure. CE's role was to develop a version of the Local Economy Forecasting Model tailored to the economy of the local area and use it to investigate the net impact of the closure and subsequent development on output and employment in Southampton and the surrounding area, taking account of local linkages and the multiplier effects of the loss of employment.
Project: LEFM projections for East Lancashire
Client: Elevate East Lancashire
Period: 2005
Elevate East Lancashire is one of the government's nine housing market renewal pathfinders, charged with finding innovative solutions to the problem of low demand, negative equity, and housing market collapse in towns across East Lancashire. CE used the Local Economy Forecasting Model to provide the client with projections of output and employment for East Lancashire, and the six local authorities within it, to provide an economic context for its analysis of future housing needs.
Project: LEFM projections for Preston City Region
Client: The Northern Way
Period: 2005
The Northern Way was launched in 2004 by the three northern Regional Development Agencies and their partners, to boost the economic and social prosperity of the North. In order to inform its work, CE was commissioned to produce economic projections to 2015 for the Preston city region using the Local Economy Forecasting Model.
Project: Local Economy Assessment 2004
Client: Hertfordshire County Council
Period: 2004
In this project CE provided Hertfordshire County Council and Hertfordshire Prosperity with chapters on the economy, labour market and local authority districts for their 2004 Local Economy Assessment. The work involved analysis of historical data and projections from CE's Local Economy Forecasting Model (LEFM) for Hertfordshire, to provide insight into the current and future position of the Hertfordshire economy. The report presented analysis of data and projections for Hertfordshire, the local authority districts of Hertfordshire, the East of England, the South East and the UK. The final report, entitled 'Understanding Hertfordshire: the Local Economy Assessment 2004', was published on Hertfordshire County Council's website.
Project: Multi-area LEFM for Merseyside
Client: Liverpool City Council
Period: 2004
This project delivered a multi-area application of CE's Local Economy Forecasting Model (LEFM). The application enables detailed economic scenarios to be developed and impact analysis to be undertaken for the six districts of Greater Merseyside (Liverpool, Wirral, Sefton, St Helens, Knowsley, Halton) and for Greater Merseyside as a whole. In doing so it provides the client with a wide range of possible information for its analysis of economic development in the area. The data and projections from the models will be used to inform the client's economic strategies. The client consists of a consortium of agencies and local authorities. The lead client was provided with the full suite of models for all areas, while each local authority was provided with the model for their district. It is intended that the consortium will update the suite of models on an annual basis, to keep pace with changes in the economy and make use of up-to-date projections consistent with CE's latest UK regional forecasts.
Project: Socio-Economic Impacts of Large-Scale Science Facilities
Client: Yorkshire Forward
Period: 2004
Yorkshire Forward had, in partnership with others, been campaigning to bring the European Spallation Source (ESS) neutron-scattering research centre to Yorkshire and had secured a site for the purpose. This study, led by Arthur D Little (ADL), quantified the potential impact of a major large-scale science facility, such as the ESS, on the Yorkshire economy. CE's role in the project was to model the potential economic impact of such a development on Yorkshire & the Humber through the application of a version of the Local Economy Forecasting Model (LEFM) software tailored to the regional economy. A series of alternative scenarios was developed using information on typical construction costs as well as the operating and purchasing characteristics of such a facility, provided by ADL. CE also estimated the impact on the UK economy taking into consideration the possible displacement effects that such a new facility could have on existing research facilities.
Project: Regional Impact of Anglia Television
Client: Anglia Television Ltd
Period: 2002
In this project, CE assessed the impact that Anglia Television Ltd (part of Granada Plc) has on the economy and society of the area in which it operates.
The study focused on the economic impact of Anglia Television, by undertaking model-based scenarios using a version of CE's LEFM software tailored to the Anglia Television area. In addition, the study considered the wider contribution made by Anglia Television with respect to its cultural and public service contribution and community activity in the region. Anglia Television used the report as part of its communication to regional opinion formers in response to the Government's draft Communications Bill.
Commenting on the final report Anglia Television remarked that '...this has been one of the best of the reports that we have commissioned.'
Project: Economic Impact Assessment of Foot & Mouth Disease in the East of England
Client: East of England Development Agency
Period: 2001
This project, undertaken in collaboration with the Rural Business Unit at the University of Cambridge, provided a rigorous and independent assessment and understanding of the economic effect of the Foot & Mouth Disease in the East of England. In doing so it assisted the regional TaskForce in its submissions to government when seeking compensation and in considering where, geographically and sectorally, available compensation should be targeted.
The analysis developed a number of stylised scenarios to explore the range of uncertainties surrounding the longevity of the FMD outbreak and its economic impact and utilised the local survey and other intelligence to ensure the realism of the modelling exercise.
The project consisted of two broad tasks: developing estimates of the direct impact of FMD (specifically on agriculture, tourism and the food processing sectors) by county and incorporating the direct impact effects into an economic model of the East of England economy to estimate the indirect effects. The estimates of the direct impact of FMD were determined with considerable attention paid to the detailed composition of the sectors in the region. In the case of tourism, this meant considering the relative impact on the behaviour of different type of tourist (eg day tripper, overseas visitor etc) and, importantly, the extent to which tourism in one area of the region may have been displaced elsewhere in the region.
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