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The Chelmer Population and Housing Model
The Chelmer Population and Housing (Chelmer) Model is a demographic regional housing model that can be tailored to produce forecasts for specific local areas. The model has been developed over many years by the Population and Housing Research Group at Anglia Ruskin University under the leadership of Professor Dave King. With the group effectively ceasing, Cambridge Econometrics has taken on the support of the model.
Features of the model
Key features of the model include:
- provides projections of population, housing numbers, household composition and labour supply
- identifies household numbers disaggregated by type (eg. married couple, lone parent, cohabiting couple etc.)
- allows for the running of 'what-if' scenarios
- operates at the level of the region, 'virtual' county (pre-1998), county, unitary and district
- projections can be migration-led, housing-led or population-led
- user-friendly software application to facilitate in-house analysis providing a range of summary/detailed report tables
Broad structure of the model
The model projects the change in the population between two dates by calculating births, deaths, outmigrants and inmigrants. The projection of private households is made from the private household population through assumptions for age/gender-specific headship rates. The implied increase for the number of dwellings is then derived through assumptions for rates of sharing dwellings by multiple households and for vacancy rates.
Housing-led projections
It is possible to reverse the direction of causation described above to consider the impact that a particular profile for the number of dwellings in an area would have on the size and character of the population. In this case the population growth and migration assumptions are derived from the assumed capacity of an area to accommodate dwellings.
For further information contact:
James Derbyshire
Senior Economist