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Demographic analysis
Context
Understanding the likely long-term change in the characteristics of the population is vital for the effective planning of infrastructure and services by both the public and private sectors. The revocation of the Regional Spatial Strategies means that there is a need for high-quality demographic analysis at the local level to underpin development proposals.
It is, however, a complex task, with the trends influenced by many factors that may be demographic (eg natural aging of the current population), social (eg trends in fertility rates, tendency for multi-generation households) and economic (eg relative strength of the local economy). Robust plans require an understanding of the contribution the different factors could have.
Tools and competence
The Chelmer Population and Housing (Chelmer) Model is a well-established demographic model that provides projections of local population, households and potential housing needs under alternative assumptions. The model has been used by a large number of local authorities, regional planning bodies, property developers and others and has had a central role in many planning enquiries and EIPs.
There are several options to using the model:
- a version of the model can be supplied to be used in-house
- we can work with you to develop tailored projections
The Chelmer model was originally developed over many years by the Population and Housing Research Group at Anglia Ruskin University under the leadership of Professor Dave King. Cambridge Econometrics became custodian of the model in 2008 since when the company has invested strongly in the development of this powerful tool.
Integrating demographic analysis in the development process
The Chelmer model has a central role in an integrated planning and modelling service tailored to the needs of the housebuilding sector.
ChelmerPlus - a service for strategic residential land promotion is a collaboration between Turley Associates, the independent planning and urban design company, and Cambridge Econometrics. The service integrates the rigourous analysis that Chelmer provides directly with Turley Associate's extensive experience advising the housebuilding sector.
For further information contact:
Mike May-Gillings
Manager, UK Local Economy Services