About Us > Economic intelligence services > UK energy and environment forecasts > Published research on UK Energy issues
Some of our published research on UK energy issues
Assessment of degree of carbon leakage in light of an international agreement on climate change:
The Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) commissioned Cambridge Econometrics (CE), Climate Strategies (CS) and Entec to assess the nature and degree of carbon leakage, for specific sectors, in light of an international agreement on climate change. The study had two main objectives each undertaken in a separate phase:
Phase 1: To assess whether there are criteria additional to those currently used by the European Commission which could refine the identification of sectors at risk from carbon leakage.
Phase 2: To assess the degree of leakage, for selected sectors, in light of various carbon mitigation scenarios and policy interventions.
For each of the sectors selected as part of this analysis, we found that for most sectors only when both a sector’s trade intensity and carbon cost are moderate to high, is a sector exposed to a large risk of carbon leakage. We believe that the European Commission’s criteria are fairly robust for assessing carbon leakage, but that the thresholds chosen may select too many sectors and do not place enough emphasis on sectors which really are at risk of carbon leakage.
The inaugural report of the Committee on Climate Change (CCC):
'The inaugural report of the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) entitled, Building a low-carbon economy - the UK's contribution to tackling climate change, was published in December 2008. This report contained the CCC's recommendations on the UK's 2050 emissions-reduction target as well as advice on the level of the first three 'carbon-budget' periods (ie 2008-12, 2013-17, and 2018-22), that are intended to help meet the target. CE provided supporting analysis on the economic implications to this report using its computer model of the UK energy-environment-economy system, MDM-E3.
The CCC's first progress report, Meeting Carbon Budgets - the need for a step change, was published on 12 October 2009. As well as assessing the progress made by the UK government, the report assessed the implications of the credit crunch and subsequent recession on meeting the carbon budgets. CE once again used MDM-E3, to complement internal analysis undertaken in the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) model. Updated UK CO2 projections were provided over the first three budget periods, taking into account the economic downturn.'
For our key findings see the CCC web site http://www.theccc.org.uk/reports/progress-reports/supporting-research.
For a pdf of our report see http://hmccc.s3.amazonaws.com/docs/CE%20Final%20Report_110809.pdf
What the Environmental Audit Committee said about our study of the Climate Change Levy in its report (p10 et al.) published on 10 March 2008
What the National Audit Office said about our energy-environment forecasts in its report published on 1 December 2006, p. 19:
'Cambridge Econometrics is generally accepted to be the only other organisation to provide an economywide projection of UK emissions.'
Our work on combined heat and power as reported in Hansard
Our work on the Climate Change Levy: reported on HM Treasury website and mentioned in the National Audit Office review for the Environmental Audit Committee entitled 'The climate change levy and climate change agreements'
Our research on projections of UK CO2 emissions and assessment of the economic impacts of carbon budgets reported on the Committee on Climate Change website See a pdf version of the report here.
Our research for the CCC report assessing the appropriate methodology for projecting Scottish CO2 emissions to 2030:
Cambridge Econometrics was commissioned by the UK Committee on Climate Change (CCC) to assess the CCC's methodology for projecting regional CO2 emissions from non-traded sectors. The report describes the assessment as well as the development of the Scenario Tool for Emissions Projections in Scotland (STEPS), which incorporates some of the recommendations made by CE. STEPS was used by the CCC to produce reference emissions projections for Scotland as part of its advice, released on 24 February 2010, to Scottish Ministers on meeting Scotland's ambitious emissions-reduction targets, as set out in the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009.
The client commented that "the project developed well over the two phases and the final model is a very useful tool for CCC’s current and future analyses."